June 12, 2025
Will Israel Attack Iran?
Ali Safavi is a member of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), Iran’s Parliament-in-Exile.
A sociologist by training, Safavi studied and taught at UCLA, California State University Los Angeles, and the University of Michigan. He was an active participant in the anti-Shah student movement in the 1970s in the United States and has been deeply engaged in Iranian affairs ever since.
Safavi has lectured and written extensively on Iran, Iraq, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and Middle Eastern politics. He has appeared in interviews on networks such as CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, CBS, BBC, Sky TV, Newsmax, and France 24. His articles and commentary have been published in leading outlets, including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Hill, The Boston Herald, The Washington Times, and The Financial Times.
Trump Draws Nuclear Red Line; Iran out of time
President Donald Trump has formally rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal in ongoing nuclear negotiations, calling it “just not acceptable.” Back in March, Trump gave Tehran two months to reach a deal. The hourglass is empty, but these are high stakes. The question now facing U.S. policymakers, and the world, is what comes next?
TOPIC:
1
00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:11,400
We are joined by Ali Savavi.
He has been on before.
2
00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:17,040
He is a member of the NCRI
parliament and he is in exile.
3
00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:21,000
He is an expert on Iran affairs.
And there's some there's some
4
00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:25,280
contention.
And the news report today seems
5
00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,920
to indicate that there's
something afoot.
6
00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:31,840
The Defense Department have
removed some personnel from
7
00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:35,960
American bases in Iraq.
Israel is reportedly ready to
8
00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:40,680
launch against Iran, which
promises strikes on retaliatory
9
00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:43,560
strikes on US bases.
And this stems from the fact
10
00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:47,240
that talks over uranium
enrichment have sort of
11
00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:49,160
stumbled.
Can you give us an update on
12
00:00:49,160 --> 00:00:52,440
what you know on your end about
what might be going down this
13
00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:53,240
weekend?
Well.
14
00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:55,600
First of all, thank you very
much for being on your show,
15
00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,880
Jim.
When it comes to developments
16
00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:06,840
both in Iran and in the region.
Obviously, being here in Europe
17
00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:12,600
is difficult to say anything
specifically as to whether the
18
00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:17,880
reports that we have seen in the
media are correct and as to
19
00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,560
whether something were really
transpired.
20
00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:26,560
But what I can say is that it is
my earnest hope that the Iranian
21
00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:31,480
regime finally realizes that the
international community is not
22
00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:37,480
going to stand by and allow it
to continue a game of cat and
23
00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:41,920
mouse in island deception that
it has pursued over the past 30
24
00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:45,720
years ever since its nuclear
weapons program was uncovered by
25
00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,840
the NCRI.
Certainly there's a tremendous
26
00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:55,000
concern internationally,
evidenced by the comprehensive
27
00:01:55,000 --> 00:02:01,000
May 31st, 2025 report by the
International Atomic Energy
28
00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:05,800
Agency, which basically said
that Iran is in violation of its
29
00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:10,800
NPT obligations.
And obviously, nobody welcomes
30
00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:15,840
any kind sort of conflict in
that part of the region, given
31
00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:18,680
the repercussions it will have
for everyone, the people of
32
00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:22,280
Iran, the region, and the wider
world.
33
00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:27,800
But I think, quite frankly, that
the Iranian regime must be held
34
00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:34,840
accountable for its many years
of obfuscating and the cheating
35
00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:39,440
regarding its nuclear weapons
program and basically doing what
36
00:02:39,920 --> 00:02:44,320
the world demands, which is the
total disinformance of its
37
00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:45,280
purpose.
Program.
38
00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:50,160
Ending enrichment, allowing IAEA
inspectors to go into all the
39
00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:56,400
suspect sites, whether military
or nuclear, and basically remove
40
00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:00,440
all the enriched uranium from
its soil because, quite frankly,
41
00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:05,600
the Iranian people are not
interested in this program.
42
00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:07,440
Iran doesn't need nuclear
energy.
43
00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:11,680
Iran has 300 years of untapped
oil and gas reserves.
44
00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:16,760
And quite frankly, the regime
has spent more than $2 trillion
45
00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:22,760
of Iranian national wealth on
this program, which is, by by
46
00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:27,760
the way, far more than the
entire oil revenues of Iran
47
00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:33,360
since 1979, the revolution.
Well, that's a lot.
48
00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,240
You've covered a lot.
Do you think that Israel is,
49
00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:41,040
let's assume the worst and that
Israel does take aggressive
50
00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:45,440
action against the sites, the
nuclear sites in Iran, which is,
51
00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:49,800
I guess, is what their plan is?
Do you see any kind of domino
52
00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:51,960
effect?
Where do you think most of the
53
00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:53,800
Middle East will sit?
What do you think they'll just
54
00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,320
sit this out and let Israel do
what it needs to do?
55
00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,880
Or do you think that there will
be, again, you know, maybe
56
00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:02,640
influences from China and
elsewhere?
57
00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:04,840
Do you see this being a
tinderbox?
58
00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:11,120
Well, I think quite frankly that
two things I think must be said
59
00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:14,240
here.
One, as to whether there will
60
00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:20,120
actually be a strike or not, we
have to wait and see and but
61
00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,960
obviously everybody is concerned
about its ramifications.
62
00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:29,320
But what can be said is that all
the countries in the region,
63
00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:33,880
Iran's neighbors, are concerned
about the hospital weapons
64
00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,040
program.
They have been ever since it was
65
00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,320
revealed by the Iranian
resistance.
66
00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:46,440
And I think all of them also, if
they were to give advice to the
67
00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:50,000
regime, would tell, tell it,
look, give up this program.
68
00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:54,720
It has no use domestically.
And of course, it's only a
69
00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,280
threat to the rest of the world,
to the rest of the region.
70
00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,960
And everybody knows, quite
frankly, that the Iranian
71
00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:04,160
regime, with insistence on
pursuing this weapons program,
72
00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:09,040
is to exert this hegemony.
But more importantly, it is
73
00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:15,000
using it as a shield, as a life
insurance, if you will, against
74
00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:19,400
its own people, because it views
it as the only strategic
75
00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:23,280
guarantee for survival.
Because that the regime does
76
00:05:23,280 --> 00:05:26,320
have the experience of what
happened in Libya.
77
00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,560
It's So what happened in Iraq
and it saw what happened in
78
00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,800
Syria.
So it news that now with the
79
00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,000
digital setbacks it has
suffered, with the fall of
80
00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:41,760
Assad, the decapitation of the
Hezbollah, the attacks on the
81
00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:48,280
Houthis, that the only way out
of the current crisis for it and
82
00:05:48,280 --> 00:05:52,760
to prolong and deserve its rule
is to hold on to the nuclear
83
00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:56,000
weapons program at all costs.
And of course, that puts the
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00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,280
people at Iran at risk.
It puts the region at risk and
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00:05:59,280 --> 00:06:02,480
naturally it will affect the
international community as a
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00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:05,280
whole.
We should mention that my guest,
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00:06:05,280 --> 00:06:08,200
Ali Savavi is a sociologist by
training.
88
00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:14,640
He studied at UCLA in
California, also the University
89
00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,320
of Michigan.
And you've been an active
90
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:21,640
participant in Anti Shah student
movement of the 70s.
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00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,200
And then of course, you
relocated to the United States.
92
00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:28,600
Do I remember correctly that you
lost a brother also in Iran?
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Yes, indeed, indeed.
And you know, I mean, talking
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00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:35,440
about the loss of my brother,
I'm, I'm glad you mentioned that
95
00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:41,360
because just yesterday, the
Iranian regime grotesquely
96
00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:47,680
executed an Iranian dissident by
the name of Mujahid Kurkur, a 42
97
00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:54,320
year old man falsely accused of
of killing a nine year old boy
98
00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:58,520
during the 2022 uprising.
Whereas the parents of the kid,
99
00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:05,160
Keon Field Palak Field Palak,
say that it was the security
100
00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:09,640
forces that opened fire on a car
her family was driving.
101
00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:13,000
And she was he was killed
instantly and the father was
102
00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,200
gravely wounded.
And the mother said publicly at
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00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:20,600
his funeral that it was the the
police officers who shot him.
104
00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:23,920
But the regime executed this man
nevertheless.
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00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:30,320
And actually since the beginning
of this year 2025, no less than
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00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:38,320
376 people have been executed in
Iran, 47 were hanged in the 1st
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00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:42,560
10 days of June.
And actually, during the 10
108
00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:46,600
months or so that position on
the so-called moderate has been
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00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:53,200
president and some 13139 people
have been hanged, including more
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00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:57,240
than 40 women, which goes to
show that hand in hand with its
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00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:01,120
nuclear intelligence, by
threatening the region, the
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00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:05,440
mullahs are a great danger to
their own citizens, which is why
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00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:09,360
we, as the Iranian resistance,
have said several things.
114
00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:17,400
One, it said several things,
one, that all the 6.
115
00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,680
Security Council resolutions
must be reactivated through the
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00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:26,640
snapback mechanism. 2.
All enrichment activity must be
117
00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:30,480
halted in Iran 3.
The entire nuclear program must
118
00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:34,960
be dismantled. 4th.
The Iranian regime nuclear
119
00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:38,960
dossier must be referred to the
UN Security Council and under
120
00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:44,520
Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.
But ultimately, we believe that
121
00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:48,600
the end to the Iranian regime's
threats, both to its own
122
00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:53,160
citizens, to the region and to
the world, will come about only
123
00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,480
when this regime is overthrown.
And of course, the Iranian
124
00:08:56,480 --> 00:09:00,560
people and the resistance are
capable, willing to pay the
125
00:09:00,560 --> 00:09:05,000
price and bring that about.
And so if I were to advise the
126
00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:09,840
international community, the US,
Europeans, others, as to what is
127
00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:14,280
the best way to go about this, I
believe the dichotomy is not
128
00:09:14,560 --> 00:09:18,200
either a deal or a war.
There's a third option, which is
129
00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:23,040
to invest in Iran's rightful
owners, the people of Iran and
130
00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:27,880
the resistance to bring about
change and of course, and this
131
00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:31,600
traumatic 46 year rule of the
mullahs that has costed
132
00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:34,840
thousands of lives, if not
millions, and has brought
133
00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,600
nothing but misery and destitute
to the people of Iran.
134
00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:40,840
We all hope for what you've
stated, we, we hope for the
135
00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,000
people of Iran that this will
have a good outcome.
136
00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:45,520
And we'll see you again soon
here on America TODAY.
137
00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:46,320
Thank you so much.
00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:11,400
We are joined by Ali Savavi.
He has been on before.
2
00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:17,040
He is a member of the NCRI
parliament and he is in exile.
3
00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:21,000
He is an expert on Iran affairs.
And there's some there's some
4
00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:25,280
contention.
And the news report today seems
5
00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,920
to indicate that there's
something afoot.
6
00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:31,840
The Defense Department have
removed some personnel from
7
00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:35,960
American bases in Iraq.
Israel is reportedly ready to
8
00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:40,680
launch against Iran, which
promises strikes on retaliatory
9
00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:43,560
strikes on US bases.
And this stems from the fact
10
00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:47,240
that talks over uranium
enrichment have sort of
11
00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:49,160
stumbled.
Can you give us an update on
12
00:00:49,160 --> 00:00:52,440
what you know on your end about
what might be going down this
13
00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:53,240
weekend?
Well.
14
00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:55,600
First of all, thank you very
much for being on your show,
15
00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,880
Jim.
When it comes to developments
16
00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:06,840
both in Iran and in the region.
Obviously, being here in Europe
17
00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:12,600
is difficult to say anything
specifically as to whether the
18
00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:17,880
reports that we have seen in the
media are correct and as to
19
00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,560
whether something were really
transpired.
20
00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:26,560
But what I can say is that it is
my earnest hope that the Iranian
21
00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:31,480
regime finally realizes that the
international community is not
22
00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:37,480
going to stand by and allow it
to continue a game of cat and
23
00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:41,920
mouse in island deception that
it has pursued over the past 30
24
00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:45,720
years ever since its nuclear
weapons program was uncovered by
25
00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,840
the NCRI.
Certainly there's a tremendous
26
00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:55,000
concern internationally,
evidenced by the comprehensive
27
00:01:55,000 --> 00:02:01,000
May 31st, 2025 report by the
International Atomic Energy
28
00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:05,800
Agency, which basically said
that Iran is in violation of its
29
00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:10,800
NPT obligations.
And obviously, nobody welcomes
30
00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:15,840
any kind sort of conflict in
that part of the region, given
31
00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:18,680
the repercussions it will have
for everyone, the people of
32
00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:22,280
Iran, the region, and the wider
world.
33
00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:27,800
But I think, quite frankly, that
the Iranian regime must be held
34
00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:34,840
accountable for its many years
of obfuscating and the cheating
35
00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:39,440
regarding its nuclear weapons
program and basically doing what
36
00:02:39,920 --> 00:02:44,320
the world demands, which is the
total disinformance of its
37
00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:45,280
purpose.
Program.
38
00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:50,160
Ending enrichment, allowing IAEA
inspectors to go into all the
39
00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:56,400
suspect sites, whether military
or nuclear, and basically remove
40
00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:00,440
all the enriched uranium from
its soil because, quite frankly,
41
00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:05,600
the Iranian people are not
interested in this program.
42
00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:07,440
Iran doesn't need nuclear
energy.
43
00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:11,680
Iran has 300 years of untapped
oil and gas reserves.
44
00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:16,760
And quite frankly, the regime
has spent more than $2 trillion
45
00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:22,760
of Iranian national wealth on
this program, which is, by by
46
00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:27,760
the way, far more than the
entire oil revenues of Iran
47
00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:33,360
since 1979, the revolution.
Well, that's a lot.
48
00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:36,240
You've covered a lot.
Do you think that Israel is,
49
00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:41,040
let's assume the worst and that
Israel does take aggressive
50
00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:45,440
action against the sites, the
nuclear sites in Iran, which is,
51
00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:49,800
I guess, is what their plan is?
Do you see any kind of domino
52
00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:51,960
effect?
Where do you think most of the
53
00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:53,800
Middle East will sit?
What do you think they'll just
54
00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,320
sit this out and let Israel do
what it needs to do?
55
00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,880
Or do you think that there will
be, again, you know, maybe
56
00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:02,640
influences from China and
elsewhere?
57
00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:04,840
Do you see this being a
tinderbox?
58
00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:11,120
Well, I think quite frankly that
two things I think must be said
59
00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:14,240
here.
One, as to whether there will
60
00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:20,120
actually be a strike or not, we
have to wait and see and but
61
00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,960
obviously everybody is concerned
about its ramifications.
62
00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:29,320
But what can be said is that all
the countries in the region,
63
00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:33,880
Iran's neighbors, are concerned
about the hospital weapons
64
00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,040
program.
They have been ever since it was
65
00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,320
revealed by the Iranian
resistance.
66
00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:46,440
And I think all of them also, if
they were to give advice to the
67
00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:50,000
regime, would tell, tell it,
look, give up this program.
68
00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:54,720
It has no use domestically.
And of course, it's only a
69
00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,280
threat to the rest of the world,
to the rest of the region.
70
00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,960
And everybody knows, quite
frankly, that the Iranian
71
00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:04,160
regime, with insistence on
pursuing this weapons program,
72
00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:09,040
is to exert this hegemony.
But more importantly, it is
73
00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:15,000
using it as a shield, as a life
insurance, if you will, against
74
00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:19,400
its own people, because it views
it as the only strategic
75
00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:23,280
guarantee for survival.
Because that the regime does
76
00:05:23,280 --> 00:05:26,320
have the experience of what
happened in Libya.
77
00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,560
It's So what happened in Iraq
and it saw what happened in
78
00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,800
Syria.
So it news that now with the
79
00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,000
digital setbacks it has
suffered, with the fall of
80
00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:41,760
Assad, the decapitation of the
Hezbollah, the attacks on the
81
00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:48,280
Houthis, that the only way out
of the current crisis for it and
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00:05:48,280 --> 00:05:52,760
to prolong and deserve its rule
is to hold on to the nuclear
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weapons program at all costs.
And of course, that puts the
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people at Iran at risk.
It puts the region at risk and
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naturally it will affect the
international community as a
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whole.
We should mention that my guest,
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Ali Savavi is a sociologist by
training.
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He studied at UCLA in
California, also the University
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of Michigan.
And you've been an active
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participant in Anti Shah student
movement of the 70s.
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And then of course, you
relocated to the United States.
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Do I remember correctly that you
lost a brother also in Iran?
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Yes, indeed, indeed.
And you know, I mean, talking
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about the loss of my brother,
I'm, I'm glad you mentioned that
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because just yesterday, the
Iranian regime grotesquely
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executed an Iranian dissident by
the name of Mujahid Kurkur, a 42
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year old man falsely accused of
of killing a nine year old boy
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during the 2022 uprising.
Whereas the parents of the kid,
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Keon Field Palak Field Palak,
say that it was the security
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forces that opened fire on a car
her family was driving.
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And she was he was killed
instantly and the father was
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gravely wounded.
And the mother said publicly at
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his funeral that it was the the
police officers who shot him.
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But the regime executed this man
nevertheless.
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And actually since the beginning
of this year 2025, no less than
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376 people have been executed in
Iran, 47 were hanged in the 1st
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10 days of June.
And actually, during the 10
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months or so that position on
the so-called moderate has been
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president and some 13139 people
have been hanged, including more
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than 40 women, which goes to
show that hand in hand with its
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nuclear intelligence, by
threatening the region, the
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00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:05,440
mullahs are a great danger to
their own citizens, which is why
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we, as the Iranian resistance,
have said several things.
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One, it said several things,
one, that all the 6.
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Security Council resolutions
must be reactivated through the
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snapback mechanism. 2.
All enrichment activity must be
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halted in Iran 3.
The entire nuclear program must
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be dismantled. 4th.
The Iranian regime nuclear
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dossier must be referred to the
UN Security Council and under
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Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.
But ultimately, we believe that
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the end to the Iranian regime's
threats, both to its own
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citizens, to the region and to
the world, will come about only
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when this regime is overthrown.
And of course, the Iranian
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people and the resistance are
capable, willing to pay the
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price and bring that about.
And so if I were to advise the
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international community, the US,
Europeans, others, as to what is
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the best way to go about this, I
believe the dichotomy is not
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either a deal or a war.
There's a third option, which is
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to invest in Iran's rightful
owners, the people of Iran and
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the resistance to bring about
change and of course, and this
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traumatic 46 year rule of the
mullahs that has costed
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thousands of lives, if not
millions, and has brought
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nothing but misery and destitute
to the people of Iran.
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We all hope for what you've
stated, we, we hope for the
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people of Iran that this will
have a good outcome.
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And we'll see you again soon
here on America TODAY.
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Thank you so much.
